Expanded GRCs is where the fights will take place
By Koh Su Haw
Stronger Opposition candidates may decide to fight in GRCs, and not SMCs
[SINGAPORE] When the Opposition won four seats in the last general election in 1991, pundits began talking of the likelihood of 10 to 20 Opposition MPs in the house at the next General Election.
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As secretary-general of the ruling party, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has come out to say -- for the first time -- that the PAP's focus in the upcoming GE is to win as many seats as it can, regardless of its share of the popular vote.
This is quite a change.
One reason may have to do with the 24 declared newcomers in the PAP's election slate: It may not be appropriate to compare their votes against those won by more experienced candidates in previous GEs.
But the key factor is the new electoral boundaries. For one, there are now only nine single-member constituencies (SMCs).
More important is the expansion of the 15 group representation constituencies (GRCs).
Instead of the standard four MPs per GRC, four of them will now have six MPs each and six others will have an additional MP.
Why are the GRCs more important? Because unlike before, where the stronger Opposition candidates preferred SMCs, this time they may decide to fight in GRCs. Remember, with the reduced number of SMCs, the chances of three-cornered contests in these wards will be much higher than before.
Whether or not this GE is marked by close fights in GRCs, one thing is certain: a loss of any GRC would be quite serious for the PAP (leaving aside the impact on the constituents in that ward).
What's clear is that each GRC team from the PAP will be led by a minister who will help pull home the newer PAP candidates. Of course, this strategy also means that if the PAP loses any GRC, it will lose a cabinet minister. (Although it is constitutionally possible for the government to appoint a losing candidate as a nominated MP or even a cabinet minister, such a move would be unprecedented and is unlikely to be well-received by the public.)
A likely line-up of the current cabinet ministers distributed across the 15 GRCs (see table).
Obviously, the PAP is not planning to lose any GRC and sacrifice any minister. But there is nothing to prevent the Opposition parties from concentrating their best candidates in a GRC and trying to defeat the PAP team there, including the minister.
So the stakes in the GRC are arguably higher now than before. For the Opposition, one factor in deciding whether to wade into GRCs is the fact that apart from the four Opposition constituencies, which have been left largely untouched, there are only five other such wards.
And the incumbent PAP MPs there have all won with comfortable margins in previous GEs and are expected to retain their seats.
To be sure, the Opposition parties will be racking their brains in the coming days to come up with their best strategy. They are also holding multi-party discussions to avoid three-cornered contests and to try to secure a repeat of the "by-election" strategy in 1991.
But any such agreement will not be easy to reach. It will be difficult for the Opposition parties to limit their candidates to only 41 seats and still avoid three-cornered contests.
Another big factor is the strong characters and egos of the various Opposition leaders. This alone is enough reason for the PAP to want to go for an early poll, rather than wait till March or April next year.
Among the Opposition political parties, the Singapore Democratic Party will be the most affected by the redrawing of electoral boundaries.
In the last GE, the SDP fielded nine candidates, all of them in SMCs. Aside from winning in three wards, five more were among the 10 best results polled by Opposition candidates.
With the new electoral boundaries, all but the three wards it won have been merged into GRCs. This is especially tough on its candidates in Bukit Batok and Yuhua, where they had gained ground over the past two GEs.
The Workers Party's sole MP, Low Thia Khiang, who has performed creditably in Parliament, is widely tipped to retain his Hougang SMC.
Many will be watching the return of its secretary-general, J B Jeyaretnam, whom some expect will contest in an SMC.
The party will also be smarting from the changes to Eunos, the most closely fought GRC in the last GE, where the WP obtained 47.6 per cent of valid votes.
The GRC has been scrapped and half of the electors living in the GRC today will be voting in the new Pasir Ris GRC. The rest will be distributed among Aljunied, East Coast and Tampines GRCs.
Although the WP is expected to contest in the newly created Pasir Ris, it will not be the same as in the fiercely fought Eunos contests of 1988 and 1991.
Furthermore, many of the voters in Pasir Ris GRC are new residents who moved into their new flats after the last GE.
The National Solidarity Party (NSP) is something of a dark horse. It crashed out in the three-cornered 1992 Marine Parade by-election, but since then, the party appears to have rejuvenated itself and a few newcomers have been working hard to prove themselves. This GE will be their first real political test.
The NSP has come out openly to state that it is likely to contest in the Tampines and Hong Kah GRCs, as well as the Boon Lay and Chua Chu Kang SMCs.
Another noteworthy development is the emergence of an independent candidate, the former NMP Chia Shi Teck. Unless he can woo a minority running-mate, he may have to contest an SMC -- and incur the wrath of whichever Opposition figure he runs up against.
While the outcome of the election is certain -- a win for the PAP -- there is plenty to fight for in this GE. It will certainly not be a yawn.
This article was first published in Business Times Singapore on 3rd December 1996.
Created : 17th December 1996. Updated : 20th December 1996.
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